The most universally watched soccer competition around is back in action this week and it promises to be a top notch competition. That much remains the same. But the actual competition format has changed and drastically so. According to UEFA, they conducted a long evaluation and worked with stakeholders to keep the competition growing and moving forward. And after several years of development a new format was rolled out and approved in May of 2022 to begin play for the 2024/2025 season.  So before discussing the clubs involved and their respective chances  we need to look at just what the new format is. What’s changed and what’s stayed the same?  Lets start with the easy part first and that is what’s stayed the same. Well its still soccer and the Round of 16 to the Final remains the same. But upfront oh my how its different. How so?

1. The tournament has expanded from 32 to 36 teams. The additional 4 spots are allocated in 3 ways. the first spot goes to the 3rd place club from the 5th rated association in UEFA (meaning not the EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga, or Serie A). The second spot adds a 5th spot to the clubs playing the preliminary qualifying process. The final two spots are added by a beauty contest. Ok, kidding but only a little bit. These two spots are awarded to the two highest performing teams from the previous domestic league seasons not already qualified. And just how do they determine this “highest” performance? By a metric called the Association Club Coefficients. So pretty much a beauty contest.
2. Now here is where the competition really diverts from previous seasons. Recall, the usual play has been 32 teams divided into 8 groups with each team playing a home and away series with the other 3 teams in their group. With the top 2 teams in points from each group advancing the the knockout stages. Well that is no longer the way. The 36 teams were divided into 4 pots based on their UEFA ranking. The draw is conducted such that each team will play matches against 2 other teams from each pot for a total of 8 matches. However, there is no home and away format for this. By draw half of these 8 matches will be at home and the other 4 away. Historically, the draw for the groups stage was very important. Some groups were harder than others. But you were still on equal footing to advance from your group as you all played the same schedule. Now I see the draw as being doubly important since there are two components. How tough are the teams you draw from each pot AND did you get the tougher matches at home or away? As I have mentioned in previous previews of this tournament, being in UCL puts a big burden on the management of a club. They not only have to manage their players fitness and form for the domestic league and cups but also for UCL. And now they have an additional 2 initial matches to deal with.
3. Advancement is now much more complicated. Teams will still be awarded 3 points for a win and 1 point for a tie but all 36 teams are lumped together in a “league.” With this many teams most certainly tie breakers will be needed. The tie breaker rules remain pretty standard. Goal differential, goals scored, away goals scored, number of league wins, and lastly away wins. Advancement based on the following. Teams that finish the league in spots 1 to 8 advance to the Round of 16. Teams that finish 9th to 16th will be seeded against a team that finished 17th to 24th. And they will play a home and away series. The 8 teams winning those spots will then be seeded against the 8 top finishers from the league play. Then for the Round of 16 to the final the format will remain as has it has been. Again though this adds two more additional matches for teams that finish the league in 9th to 24th.
So its bigger but is it better? That remains to be seen. On the plus side there will be a lot more matches in total. Of course, that means a lot more revenue for the clubs and UEFA. The potential down side for me is three fold.

1. Initially I was concerned that adding 4 more clubs wasn’t necessarily making the competition better. There were already pretty weak clubs in 32 and adding more more seemed to weaken it even more. However, with the approach being used to get one of these 4 additional spots in fact they maty actually be stronger teams than some of the bottom of the 32 teams. For example, the third place team from Ligue 1 may well be stronger than the first place club from the Russian First Division.
2. In group play format, even if you had a tougher group, you were still on equal footing with the other teams in your group. In this league play format the draw may play even a bigger role. Perhaps you luck out and get 2 of the weaker sides from each pot and get your 4 toughest matches at home. Conversely, how much would it suck to get the top 2 clubs from each pot AND get the both matches from Pots 1 and 2 on the road?
3. How much will this impact the domestic competitions (leagues and cups) and player fitness? Already much is being discussed about how soccer is now just about a year round sport and there are too many matches. This just adds more matches for the top teams. Roster management is just taken another notch up in importance.
Generally, its the way the sports world is going. More is better. Certainly there will be more revenue generated but it remains to be seen if this really is better or just more? We shall see.

In the past we have looked at the groups and how we anticipated them to shake out and who was likely to advance and likely to go home. Under this new format a general discussion of each of the 36 clubs will have to do. First lets look at the countries that have teams that qualified and how many made it.

Germany  and Italy each have 5 teams; England, Spain, and France each have 4 teams; Austria, the Netherlands, and Portugal have 2 each; and lastly Belgium, Croatia, Czechia, Scotland, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland, and Ukraine have one each. So here is a breakdown by country for each of their qualifying teams, the top players, and their expectations. Note for the advancement projections I used the Opta Analyst data. I think they have shown to be the most reliable system over the last few years.

Germany (5)

Bayern Munich

League Finish – 3rd

Current Form – 2-2-1

Strength – When you lead the Bundesliga in goals you know you have an offensive juggernaut. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala in the midfield and Harry kane and Serge Gnarby are a formidable attacking group.

Weakness – The defense has aged a bit and keeper Manuel Neuer is not the immense player he once was. Now he’s just a super star.

Projection – Should advance to the Round of 16. But they also got a pretty tough draw with Aston Villa and Barcelona on the road and PSG at home.

Dortmund

League Finish – 5th

Strength – Karem Adeyemi. They will go as far as he can carry them. They also have a solid and deep midfield. When a class player like Gio Reyna rarely starts you know that’s a solid group of players.

Weakness – Do they have the depth to address all these matches? Gio Reyna is already injured (so what else is new),

Projection – A strong favorite to advance to the Round of 16. They drew Real Madrid away and Barcelona at home. But the rest of their schedule is light.

RB Leipzig

League Finish – 4th

Strength – Defense allowing the second fewest goals in the league last season.

Weakness – Goal scoring. They finished 5th in the league last season and goals will be tougher to come by in UCL.

Projection – A strong favorite to advance to the Round of 16. And I think this is boosted by their draw, The three toughest matches they drew (Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Juventus) are all at home.

Bayer Leverkusen

League Finish -1st

Strength – Defense allowing the fewest goals in the league last season. In fact they only allowed 24 goals in 34 league matches. That’s crazy good and it all starts with keeper Lukas Hradecky.  At 6’3″ he just covers an immense amount of the goal mouth. Then there is the attack second in goals behind only Bayern Munich.

Weakness – They really don’t have any. The question for them is going to be experience at playing all these extra matches and the tougher competition of UCL.

Projection – A strong favorite to advance to the Round of 16. The got a decent draw. Liverpool on the road and AC Milan at home. The key match for them may be the first match at Feyenoord. If they can get a result there I like their chances.

Stuttgart

League Finish – 2nd

Strength – A good balance between the attack and defense with a solid +39 goal differential last season.

Weakness – They have not started out this season like a #2 club . They are down in 10th in the league at this early stage.

Projection – A coin flip to advance. There two toughest matches are both away at Real Madrid and Juventus. I think this is the German team least likely to advance especially given they start away at Real Madrid.

Italy (5)

Atalanta

League Finish – 4th

Strength – A good balance between age and experience in defense and youthful energy in the attack. They will need Italian striker Mateo Retegui to continue to provide goals (3 in 4 Serie A matches so far this season).

Weakness – Their defense has allowed 8 goals in Serie A so far. Now granted 4 of those were against Inter but things won’t get easier in UCL.

Projection – Just a bit better than a toss up. The draw didn’t go them much of a favor opening at home against Arsenal. They also have Real Madrid at home but away at Stuttgart and Barcelona (the last match). I think the oddsmakers have this one a bit off. I think they are slight dogs to move on.

Bologna

League Finish – 5th

Strength – They don’t give up much allowing just 32 goals in 38 matches last season.

Weakness – They don’t score much either and they have allowed 7 goals in their first 4 Serie A matches and have yet to win (0-3-1).

Projection – Just a 30% chance to advance and I think that is based on 3 factors. They only got in as one of the extra teams on the new format, they haven’t started well in Serie A, and they got a very tough draw having to face Liverpool, Aston Villa, Dortmund, and Sporting CP.

Internazionale

League Finish – 1st

Strength – Stout at every position on the field. Last season they scored the most and allowed the fewest goals in Serie A. Not much more a coach can ask for. Lautaro Martinez tallied 24 goals last season followed by Marcus Thuram with 13. And Thuram has 4 already this year in just 3 matches.

Weakness – They really don’t have any. Perhaps they don’t have any world class players but they are solid everywhere and they know how to win.,

Projection – Interestingly enough they are heavy (85%) favorites to advance even with a tough draw facing Man City, Arsenal, Leipzig, and Leverkusen. That’s how good these guys are.

Juventus

League Finish – 3rd

Strength – Top notch midfield and a solid back line. And they can spread the scoring around. So far 5 different players have scored for them this young season. And in the back they have 4 clean sheets in 4 matches. In fact in those 4 matches keepers Michelle Di Gregorio and Mattia Perin have only been called on to make 5 saves.

Weakness – They are lacking a true scoring threat. Serbian striker Dusan Vlahovic is solid and led the team with 15 goals last year. But he was the only player to score in double figures. Next in line was Federico Chiesa with 9 and he’s moved on to Liverpool.

Projection – The odds makers like them (60%) and I think that is based upon their experience in UCL the last number of years. But I sure don’t like the draw they got. PSV, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Aston Villa, and Man City. They have a tough road ahead of them.

AC Milan

League Finish – 2nd

Strength – USMNT winger Christian Pulisic came into his own in Italy last season finishing 2nd in goals with 12 (along with 8 assists) and he is leading the team so far this year with 2 and also 2 assists. Add in Rafael Leao and it makes a potent attack.

Weakness – They lost leading goal scorer Olivier Giroud to retirement and replacing his 15 goals will be difficult.

Projection – Slightly less than a flip to advance and I think that’s largely due to the departure of Giroud. Then there is the first half of the schedule having to face Liverpool (H), Leverkusen (A), Club Brugge (H), and Real Madrid (A). IF they can stay afloat then they have a shot as the back half is much easier. But its a pretty big if.

England (4)

Arsenal

League Finish – 2nd

Strength – An EPL second best attack and best defense. In fact they allowed 5 fewer goals than second best Man City. Look at the spine of this team. Two quality keepers in David Raya and Neto. Ben White and William Saliba in defense, a midfield of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard, and a front 3 of Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, and one of the Gabriels (Jesus or Martinelli). Yikes, nobody wants to face that.

Weakness – If they have one, and its a minor complaint, its that they have an occasional game where they just fall flat. Have to avoid that in UCL if they want to go far.

Projection – Opta Analyst says they advance 3 out of 4 times. 4th highest in their analysis. I think they have an excellent shot to advance especially given their draw. Only PSG is a true front runner. They got a pretty easy draw. As long as they don’t fall asleep they move on.

Aston Villa

League Finish – 4th

Strength – They can score from all over the field. Last season they had 6 players tally 5 or more goals and leading scorer Ollie Watkins (19 goals) is back. Columbian forward Jhon Duran has started off this year smoking hot with 3 goals already. They will need Duran and Watkins to score in bunches if they are to advance.,

Weakness – They had the lowest goal differential of any EPL team that qualified for this seasons UCL. They allowed 20 more goals than any of the other 3 EPL qualifiers. That has to be shored up in UCL.

Projection – They aren’t given a very good chance to move on at just over 30%. I think thats a fair analysis. The draw is pretty middle of the road so if they can get some points from Bayern Munich, Juventus, and/or RB Leipzig they have a shot.

Liverpool

League Finish – 3rd

Strength –  3rd best in goals scored and allowed. They are just a solid side. The attack of Mo Salah, Luis Diaz, and Diogo Jota have already combined for 7 goals this season and Salah is averaging an assist/match so far. They will get their goals in UCL.

Weakness – This may boil down to how well new coach Arne Slot manages this team through all the competitions. Jurgen Klopp was a masterful tactician at this and losing him to retirement will be a tough act to follow.

Projection –  About 65% to advance. I think the metrics love the players but are a bit hesitant over the loss of Klopp. That and a fairly unkind draw (Milan, Leipzig, and PSV away and Leverkusen and Real Madrid at home).

Manchester City

League Finish – 1st (need you ask)

Strength –  Lead the EPL in goals and second in goals allowed. Here’s up the middle of the field: Ederson, Kyle Walker and John Stones, Mateo Kovacic, Jack Grealish, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, and Erling Haaland. Haaland had a slow season ONLY scoring 27 league goals so he’s pissed and has 9 already this year. He’s pretty much unstoppable.

Weakness – Literally none. Unless the money runs out they are a true dynasty.

Projection –  95% so don’t bet against them. I don’t care about the odds you’d get, you are just lighting your money on fire.

France (4)

Brest

League Finish – 3rd

Strength –  A decent side in a decent league. No superstars but they had 13 different player score goals last year.

Weakness – Missing that killer finisher. Goals are hard to come by in UCL and although they have some nice depth the quality isn’t quite there.

Projection –  13% to advance. See the weakness above and that covers it. They did get a favorable draw in having only Leverkusen and Barcelona as almost unwinnable games. Still not going to be enough.

Lille

League Finish – 4th (0ne of the bonus teams under the new format)

Strength – Jonathan David, the Canadian striker is a good one. Tallied 19 league goals last season.

Weakness – If, and its no easy task, you find a way to shut down David you can beat Lille. They had a couple of guys score around 5 goals last year but they might struggle with the tougher competition in UCL.

Projection –  A 4 to 1 dog and I suspect that holds true. And they have Real Madrid, Atletico, Juventus and Liverpool. Ouch.

Monaco

League Finish – 2nd

Strength – A ball control offense that can score from anywhere and in multiple ways. They can buildup and counter. Tough to defend because they have 3 or 4 capable shooters on the field at any given time.

Weakness – Inexperience. This will be their first time in UCL in 6 years

Projection –  Surprising to me is that the model has them at almost 40% to advance especially since they finish at Arsenal, home to Aston Villa, and at Internazionale. And their first match is home to Barcelona. Key probably to get at least a point there.

Paris Saint-Germain

League Finish – 1st

Strength – Most goals and second fewest allowed. PSG continues to be the class of Ligue 1 winning 8 of the last 10 seasons. They score from wide attacks, up the middle, and on set pieces. And even though Mbappe is gone they don’t seem to be missing a beat. And they have one of the best keepers in Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Weakness – The question is will the departure of Mbappe wear on them over a long season?

Projection –  65% to move on but certainly not helped in the draw. Home matches with PSV, Altetico, and Man City and away matches with Arsenal, Bayern, and Stuttgart make this a tough road.

Spain (4)

Atletico Madrid

League Finish – 4th

Strength –  Experience. They have a solid plan for managing their roster. Keep the core in place and move fringe pieces out and move complimentary pieces in each transfer window. Their fortunes run with how well keeper Jan Oblak and striker Antoine Griezmann play. If Oblak makes saves and Griezmann scores or assists they win most of the time. Its a simple plan but it works.

Weakness – Alvaro Morata, their other goal scorer (15 goals last season) transferred to Milan. That’s a big loss of production that needs to be repalced.

Projection –  64% to advance. Not up with the big boys but solid enough. I think though that they may be overreacting to the loss of Morata. They got a pretty good draw.

Barcelona

League Finish – 2nd behind only La Liga and UCL Champions Real Madrid

Strength –  Robert Lewandowski continues to score goals. Raphina continues to add his share of goals and assists. And Marc Ander ter Stegen is a world class keeper. And so far this season they are averaging over 3 goals/match.

Weakness – Playmaker Ilkay Gundogen has gone back to the EPL (Man City). Raphina is also an excellent playmaker but someone else will need to step up. What made them so dangerous last season was having two top playmakers in the lineup. Having one is still great but so much easier to defend,

Projection –  Most likely to move on at 83%, especially given the pretty easy draw they got.

Girona

League Finish – 3rd

Strength –  Scoring and lots of it. Second last year only to Real Madrid lead by Artem Dovbyk (24).

Weakness – Dovbyk left for AS Roma. Not sure how you replace that production although they do have 7  players who have found the back of the net in their first 5 matches.

Projection –  Another flipping team. But the draw does not look favorable. Their last 3 are home with Liverpool, away at Milan, and home with Arsenal. That’s a tough stretch.

Real Madrid

League Finish – 1st and UCL Champions

Strength –  Everything. First in scoring. First in goals allowed (11 fewer than next best). Lots of depth. And they added Kylian Mbappe over the summer transfer window. So far he’s been tremendous leading the team with 3 goals. And if you pay too much attention to Mbappe they have Vinicius Junior and Rodrigo. Just too many horses to defend.

Weakness – They are better defensively at home than on the road if you want to call that a weakness. Teams that have drawn them at home better make the most of it.

Projection –  94%. What’s not to like. The continually have done it so why should this year be any different? The one potential glitch is that they got some tough teams in the draw with Stuttgart, Dortmund, and Milan all at home and Liverpool and Atalanta on the road. Still they should handle business.

 Netherlands (2)

Feyenoord

League Finish – 2nd

Strength –  Second in the table, goals scored, and fewest goals allowed. A stout one two punch up front with Santiago Gimenez and Igor Paixao and that added in a young speedster in Ibrahim Osman. The 19 year old Ghanian speedster will be tough for opposing defenses to handle especially as a second half sub. They are pretty loaded in the attack now. And they added a 6’4″ Uruguayan defender at the transfer deadline in Facundo Gonzalez. Once he learns their system he will be a solid addition.

Weakness – They play in the Dutch Eredivisie which tends to play fairly wide open and its not the strongest league top to bottom.

Projection –  4-1 to falter and that’s maybe generous. They will find it tougher to score and defend in UCL play.

PSV Eindhoven

League Finish – 1st

Strength –  First in everything. They are literally an offensive juggernaut scoring 111 goals in 34 matches. Malik Tillman and Ricardo Pepi (both USMNT) combined for 16 goals and they aren’t even starters. Pepi has really developed in the Dutch league but he has to sit behind Luuk de Jong and his 29 goals. Even though they play in the Dutch league they routinely make UCL so they have plenty of experience to know what it takes to win at that higher level. And given how solid and deep their roster is they can play a lot of “lesser” players in their domestic league and keep the first teamers fresh when they have UCL matches coming up.

Weakness – Their backline has been really hit hard with injuries, RB Sergino Dest (USMNT) included. They need to get healthy to have much of a shot,

Projection –  Slightly less than a flip. We will have a pretty good idea on them in the first 3 matches. Away at Juventus and PSG and home against Sporting CP.

Portugal (2)

Benfica

League Finish – 2nd

Strength –  Good upfront and lots of experience with Rafa Silva and Angel di Maria.

Weakness – But can that continue? Silva is 31 and Di Maria is 36. Sooner or later the age thing is going to work against them.

Projection –  About a 3-1 to falter. They start away at Crvena  Zvezda then home with Atletico and Feyenrood. Need to build some momentum for the then tough road test with Bayern.

Sporting Lisbon

League Finish – 1st

Strength –  They lead the league in scoring and had 3 guys in double digits and one that was just a single goal short. They love to shoot and do so from range. But be when the defense collapses on them to take that long shot away they are very adept at a quick give and go and then the shooter is on your doorstep,

Weakness – A solid but underwhelming defense that can be beat especially by the higher quality forwards they will face in UCL.

Projection –  60/40 to move on and they got a pretty decent schedule.  With 2 top teams, 3 mid range teams, and 3 lesser teams. They have the tools to win a Round of 16 matchup too if they get a good draw.

The Rest

All of the rest of these teams finished 1st in their respective leagues by definition. The only get one spot. The one exception being the Austrian Bundesliga which got a second team (Strum Graz won the league and Salzburg was second). Club Brugge (Belgium), Celtic (Scotland), Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia), Sparta Prague (Czechia), Young Boys (Switzerland), Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine), Crvena Zvezda (Serbia), and Slovan Bratislava (Slovakia) all have a couple of things in common.

1. They have some quality players but not at the level of the bigger clubs (or even the smaller clubs in the big leagues).,
2. They play in weak leagues that are not deep in talent. They aren’t used to the speed of play they will face in UCL.
3. They aren’t used to travelling like required in UCL. This takes its tool.
4. None of them are even close to betting favorites to advance. Celtic is given the best shot at 21%.
The bottom line is that these clubs are likely all going home although a couple of them could finish high enough to make the playoff round.

So there it is. The biggest difference this year is that managers will have to pay way more attention the the competition as a whole rather than just the other 3 teams in their group. Clearly the target is to finish in the top 8 to guarantee a spot in the Round of 16. Going to be interesting to watch and as has been the case the last few years US broadcasts will be aired on Paramount + and CBSSports.